Political Transitions
in Central Asia
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Jonathan K. Zartman
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VULNERABILITY
AND CENTRAL ASIAN DEVELOPMENT

Research Papers
Appendix H

APPENDIX G:
NATIONAL CAPABILITIES

TABLE A: RESOURCE BASE OF NATIONAL CAPABILITIES


Example of Raw Data:

Each domain of resources measured by the following statistics:
Military--number of personnel and military expenditure;
Industrial--production of ingot steel and industrial fuel consumption;
Demographic--total population and urban population.

 
="text-align: RIGHT">7
Country MILITARY INDUSTRIAL DEMOGRAPHIC
#'s Armed
Forces 
(1,000s)
 Spending
U. S. $ mil

Steel
production

Energy
consumption

Total.
mid 1993

Urban
Russia
 1270 69,537 58,346 659,930 148.7 111
Kazakh
 40 460 6,063 56,664 17 10
Kyrgyz
 47 0 2,755 4.6 1.8
Tajik
 7* 113 n. a. n. a. 5.8 1.8
Turkmen
 18 135 n. a. n. a. 3.9 1.8
Uzbek
 30 412 0 41,825 21.9 9
China
2935 34,684 89,556 791,040 1,178 342
Iran
 513 3,301 1,000 100,000 64.2 37.2
Turkey
 525 6,856 12,575 92,537 59.6 39.3
Afghan
 429 200 0 n.a. 17.6 2.25
subtotal 5774 115,745 167,540 1,744,751   556.4
Europe
(-Ger &-Turkey)
1552.5 137,930 95,265 912,870 267 138
Germany
 358.3 38,432 37,705 336,490 80.7 69.4
U. S.
 1483 265,823 88,793 2,038,000 257.8 196
Total 9167 557.930 389,303   2,126.8 957.5

Sources: World Balance of Military Power 1997-1998, International Institute for Strategic Studies, (New York: Oxford University Press, 1997).*(+16.5 Russian border guards+12 mostly Russian CIS troops) Russian energy usage computed from 1995 World Development Report: 4,438 kg/cap X 148.7 mill. pop. Statistical Abstract of the World, ed. Annmarie Muth, (New York: Gale, 1997), Minerals Yearbook, Vol III (Wash. D.C. Superintendent of Documents, 1994) Statistical Yearbook 1994(New York: United Nations, 1996)


TABLE B
COMPUTATION OF SCORE
CENTRAL ASIAN STATES ALONE
For each dimension the share of the system total is computed in percentage
and the three dimensions are added and averaged.
Forces Spend.$ Steel Energy Total Urban
Country MILITARY Mean INDUSTRIAL Mean DEMOGRAPHIC Mean Mean of the TotaL
of the Means
Russia 22.0 60.0
41.0
34.8 37.0 35.9 9.7 20.0 14.9 30.6
Kazakh 0.7 0.4 0.5 3.6 3.2 3.4 1.1 1.8 1.4 1.8
Kyrgyz --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Tajik --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Turkmen --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Uzbek   0.4 0.2 --- 2.4 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.0
China 51.0 30.0 41.0 53.4 45.0 49.0 77.0 61.7 69.4 53.2
Iran 8.8 2.9 5.9 0.6 5.7 3.2 4.2 6.7 5.4 4.8
Turkey 9.0 5.9 7.5 7.5 5.3 6.4 4.0 7.0 5.5 6.5
Afghan 7.4 --- 3.7 --- --- --- 1 --- 0.5 1.4


TABLE C
COMPUTATION OF SCORE
INCLUDING THE U.S. AND EUPORE
(CENTRAZBAT AND PARTNERSHIP FOR PEACE)
For each dimension the share of the system total is computed in percentage
and the three dimensions are added and averaged.

 
Country
MILITARY
 Mean
INDUSTRIAL
 Mean
DEMOGRAPHIC
 Mean Mean of
the total of
the means
Forces Expend.$ Steel
Energy
Pop
Urban
Russia
 14.0 12.4 3.2 15.0 13.0 14.0 6.9 11.6 9.2 12.0
Kazakh
 --- --- -- 1.5 1.0 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.7
Kyrgyz
 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Tajik
 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---- --- --- ---
Turkmen
 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Uzbek
 --- --- --- --- --- --- 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.3
China
 32.0 6.2 19.1 23.0 15.7 17.3 55.0 35.7 45.3 27.2
Iran
 5.6 --- 2.8 0.3 2.0 1.1 3.0 3.9 3.4 2.4
Turkey
 5.7 1.2 3.5 3.2 2.0 2.6 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.4
Afghan
 4.7 --- 2.3 --- --- --- 1.0 --- 0.5 0.9
EUR
(-Ger & Tky)
 17.0 24.7 21.0 24.5 18.0 21.2 12.5 14.4 13.5 18.5
Germany
 4.0 6.8 5.4 9.6 6.7 8.2 3.8 7.2 5.5 6.4
U. S.
 16.0 47.6 32.0 22.8 40.0 31.4 12.0 20.5 16.2 26.5


TABLE D
SECURITY VULNERABILITY
RAW DATA EXAMBLE: UZBEKISTAN

 
Uzbekistan: BORDER PRESSURE  % of 
Total		 BORDERS Borders
Mean		 National
Capacity		 Total % of 
Total
Security
 Refugees Dev. Diff % Crossings % of Borders
Russsia
             30.6 31.0 10.4
Kazakh
       16.0 35.4 25.7 1.8 28.0 9.4
Japan
                  
China
   11.0 6.5       53.2 60.0 20.0
Kyrgyz
/td> 		  2.0 1.0 20.0 17.7 18.8   20.0 6.7
Tajik
 2.6 5.8 4.9 16.0 18.7 17.3   22.0 7.6
S. Korea
                  
Afghan
 97.3 39.9 81.4 4.0 2.2 3.1 1.4 86.0 29.3
Turkmen
   7.1 4.2 44.0 26.1 35.0   39.0 13.4
Azerb
   0.2              
Turkey
   2.4 1.4       6.5 8.0 2.7
Developing Eur.
                 
U. S.                   
Industrial Eur                  
Ger                  
Ukr/Pol                  
Total
   168.0 99.4     99.9 93.5 293.0
Eff. # of Parties
 5.7

Uzbekistan Sources and Notes: Boundaries from CIA Yearbook, plus calculations for the Caspian sea as follows: Coastline of Caspian Sea divided by the percentage of Caspian Sea ports in each of the other Caspian littoral states because the projection of capability to influence by military means must be from a port but upon any of the coastline. Border crossings includes Caspian ports only on an equal basis with roads and railroad crossings even though the trade potential through railroads and ports may be vastly greater.

Table of Contents

NATIONAL CAPABILITIES
Appendix H

Email:  jkzartman@msn.com

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