Political Transitions
in Central Asia
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Jonathan K. Zartman
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VULNERABILITY
AND CENTRAL ASIAN DEVELOPMENT

Research Papers
Appendix C

APPENDIX B:
COMPARATIVE LEVELS OF DEVELOPMENT

Summary Table: "Emulation Model"

Aggregated Indicators of Development"
For each indicator the highest ranking score is 100%
and all others are expressed as the percentage of the highest score
(Comparison of World Bank Data and CIA Data excluding Malaysia)
World Bank Data CIA Data Ranking
Country
Agg- 
Score
Mean
% of highest
score
Agg-
Score
Mean
% of 
highest
 WB CIA
Kazakhstan 382.8
76.6
78
328
65.6
67.4
2.0
2
Kyrgyzstan 280.0
46.7
47
268
44.7
45.9
5.0
5
Tajikistan 239.9
39.9
41
245
40.9
42.0
6.5
7
Turkmenistan 193.3
64.4
***
158
39.6
40.6
***
8
Uzbekistan 50.2
50.2
51
280
46.7
48.0
4.0
3
Azerbaijan 313.2
52.0
53
279
46.5
47.8
3.0
4
Average of above excluding Kazakhstan (CA + Azer.) 44.86 
Averaged with Russia 72.4
  
Russia 588 97.9
100
584
 97 100 1 1
China 189 31.5
32
215
 36 37 8 10
India 146 24.2
25
167
 28 29 10 11
Pakistan 98 16.2
17
125
 21 21
11
12
Afghanistan 19 6.3
6
34
 7 7 12 13
Iran 157 26.1
26
223
 37.1 38 9 9
Turkey 289 39.8
41
266
 44 45.5 7 6

***Lack of WB data would give an artificially high ranking to Turkmenistan

APPENDIX B
(CONTINUED)
INDICATORS OF DEVELOPMENT: RAW DATA
EXAMPLE USING CIA DATA


Country
GNP/Cap
in PPP
Newspaper
circ./ Pop
Energy Cons/
Cap. --kWh
% of
age group
in Sec. Edu.
Phys/
100,000
Reciprocal
of Infant
mortality
Kazakhstan 2,700
NA
 3,700
90
0.40
15.8
Kyrgyzstan 1,140
11
 2,500
94
0.35
12.9
Tajikistan 1,040
13
 2,400
99
0.28
8.8
Turkmenistan 2,820
NA
 2,400
NA
0.34
12.3
Uzbekistan 2,370
7
 2,130
94
0.34
12.6
Russia 5,300
387
 5,800
87
0.47
40.4
China 2,900
23
 593
55
0.13
25.5
Malaysia 9,800
142
 1,528
78
0.03
41.7
India 1,500
26
 324
48
0.21
14.0
Pakistan 2,100
21
 389
42
0.03
10.3
Afghanistan 600
11
 39
NA
0.02
6.8
Iran 4,700
17
 745
66
0.03
19.0
Turkey 5,500
44
 1,079
61
0.08
23.1
Azerbaijan 1,480
28
 2,200
88
0.40
13.4
U.S. 27,500
236
 11,236
97
0.24
149.0
Japan 21,300
576
 7,293
96
0.16
227.0

Sources: Newspaper circulation per capita and percentage of age group in secondary education for Kyrgyzstan andPakistan from UNESCO Statistical Yearbook 1996 (Lanham, MD UNESCO Publishing 1996); Energy consumption per capita in Kwh, Infant Mortality (Reciprocal calculated by the author) and GNP/Capita PPP from the CIA Factbook 1996. World Development Report by the World Bank omits GNP/Cap for Afghanistan, Iran and Turkmenistan. For the sake of consistancy the CIA figures were used even though they must be calculated differently since they are often significantly higher, 1,480 for Azerbaijan instead of 500.Percentage of age group in secondary education cross checked with World Development Report 1996 (New York: Oxford University Press 1996 (which omits Kyrgyzstan and Pakistan) Physicians per 100,000 population from Third World Guide, 1995/1996, Instituto del Tercer Mundo Montevideo, Uraguay and Oxfam, UK 1995.

Table of Contents

COMPARATIVE LEVELS OF DEVELOPMENT

 Appendix C


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